Schematicbot Unlock Guide: Pool Rules and Probabilities

A schematic box triggers a random unlock from the remaining eligible pool and consumes one box. The owned-part path checks an eligible item you already possess and unlocks that exact part without consuming a schematic box. These paths answer different progression problems and should not be described as the same roll.

Use random boxes when many remaining unlocks are useful. Use the owned-part route when you can obtain a specific eligible example and want to remove uncertainty. The second route turns possession into targeting; it does not improve the random probability of unrelated items.

The audited current dataset starts with 573 candidates. It removes 120 banned entries and 91 default-unlocked entries, leaving 356 eligible initial random unlocks. The Schematicbot chooses uniformly from the remaining list and removes the selected entry, so a random duplicate cannot be selected from that same remaining pool.

One of the 356 records has an official sprite but only an internal placeholder title. It remains in the denominator because removing an unnamed eligible record would make the published probability wrong. The public list can omit an invented display name while still preserving the mechanical count.

On the first box, a named entry in a fresh 356-item pool has a 1/356 chance, about 0.281%. Because selected entries are removed, the chance of having obtained that particular entry after n random boxes is n/356, as long as no other unlock path changes the pool and n is no greater than 356.

That does not mean the nth box always has an n/356 chance by itself. If the target remains locked after n − 1 boxes, the next conditional chance is 1 divided by the number of remaining entries. Distinguishing cumulative probability from next-roll probability prevents misleading “drop-rate increase” claims.

When the unlocked target is a block, the logic can recursively unlock every Saw Table recipe whose first ingredient is that block. The audited dataset contains 45 block groups, with 30 random-pool entries linked to these groups. One unlock can therefore expose a related production family rather than only a single isolated output.

This propagation is rule-based, not a bonus roll. Check the input relationship of the Saw Table recipe before assuming that visually similar wedges or block shapes will unlock together. A shared material appearance is not enough; the linked first ingredient is what matters.

Count how many remaining random unlocks would materially help your current build. If the useful share is high, boxes have broad value even when a specific target is unlikely. If only one or two results matter and an eligible part can be acquired elsewhere, the owned-part route is strategically stronger.

Do not publish a fixed “boxes required” number for a specific schematic. Uniform selection without replacement gives exact probabilities, not a guaranteed early position. Check the resulting recipe route in the crafting planner; a good plan states the pool size, current removals, target path, and whether a linked block family changes the value of the unlock.

• Random box: consumes one box and removes one uniformly selected eligible entry.
• Owned part: unlocks that eligible part directly and does not consume a box.
• No replacement means random-box duplicates are removed from the remaining pool.
• Block-family propagation depends on Saw Table input links.